What the NCAA tournament teaches us about decision bias

It’s that time of year again — when die-hard sports fans (and even some non-sports fans) start filling out their bracket picks as they make their predictions for the NCAA tournament, a.k.a. “March Madness.”

I am an alumnus of a major NCAA Division I basketball school — Syracuse University. Syracuse alumni are well-known for their school spirit and love of their alma mater. As such, SU alums regularly wear their school spirit on their sleeve — often, literally. As an alum, I can relate; much of my wardrobe is orange. Anyone who knows me knows that I bleed Syracuse Orange.

Of course, I am the first to admit that my devotion to my alma mater often influences my decisions when I make my NCAA tournament picks. If I filled out my bracket completely with my heart, I would have Syracuse winning it all every single year (and who cares about the remainder of my picks). As such, each year when I fill out my bracket, my bias toward my beloved Orange often influences my picks. Each year, a part of me starts rationalizing how the Orange will defeat (fill in name of opponent here). I’ll often have thoughts such as, “so-and-so has a hot shooting streak going,” or “our opponent usually struggles against the 2-3 zone,” and so on. More often than not, my heart overrides my head when I pick my Orange to upset their higher-ranked opponent. Of course, I usually end up disappointed as my Orange are sent back home to Syracuse.

The bias works in reverse as well. Anyone who follows college basketball knows about Syracuse’s heated rivalry against the hated Georgetown Hoyas. As such, we Syracuse fans are likely to pick against Georgetown in their part of the bracket. (That said, I watched Georgetown play in this year’s Big East tournament final, and they looked like world-beaters. They’re seeded #12 vs. #5 Colorado in this year’s tournament. I wouldn’t bet against them. If you’re looking for a #12 to upset a #5, you could do worse than this one.)

I believe that there’s a professional lesson to be gleaned from this: our biases often get in the way.

We all have biases of some sort. They come from our worldview, our culture, how we were raised, what we’ve learned, and our belief systems. Everyone has a perspective on how they see the world, and everyone tends to be biased against anything that doesn’t align with that perspective. We’ve seen extreme examples of this throughout the world over the past few years (don’t worry, I will not talk about politics here). At the professional level, our worldview often affects decisions that we make. These biases often establish themselves as blind spots, so no matter how much we claim to be “unbiased,” we often don’t know that they’re there. Probably one of the biggest oxymorons is “unbiased decision.” Realistically, there is no such thing. This isn’t necessarily a deficiency; rather, this is part of what makes us human.

So what can we do to reduce (not eliminate — that is unlikely) bias? For one thing, keep an open mind — no matter what you think, realize that there might be another way. To rattle off a couple of clichés, “there’s more than one way to skin a cat*,” and “minds are like parachutes — they only work when they’re open.” Empathy often goes a long way as well. Put yourself in someone else’s shoes — what would this person think if you were in his or her position? I’ve often found that this approach makes me more successful professionally; it improves my work quality, and it brings projects to a better conclusion. Effective communication (another topic for another time) is crucial here; it adjusts your thought process and helps you to achieve that end.

(*I like cats — I have two of my own — so I tend to not like this saying.)

I would also think about what could happen with a decision. There are some decisions that are okay to make with your heart — proposing to your significant other, for example — but there’s also something to be said about listing the pros and cons of a decision. Do the benefits outweigh the issues? Can you live with the consequences if something goes wrong? And so on it goes.

Making decisions is hard to do — this is why managers often get paid the big bucks. If you’re able to minimize the amount of bias that goes into your decision-making, chances are you’ll do alright.

(And by the way… GO ORANGE!!!)

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The #Coronavirus chronicles, part 10: We’re having a parade! #COVID19

This morning, the local grammar school put on a car parade by its teachers. I took some photos, and I wanted to share! Good things happen in neighborhoods, and I have good neighbors!

First, my neighbors wanted to show their support! The chalk art was by my neighbors across the street. I could also see other people out in front of their houses with balloons and signs to show their support as they drove by.

I figured it was a good excuse to take out my horn, so on a whim, I grabbed it and serenaded the cars as they went by. I figured, what’s a parade without a band!

Here goes the parade! I guess-timate that there were about a dozen or so cars, maybe more. I only got a few of them because I was busy playing my sax as they drove by!

Despite the COVID-19, everyone is making the best of the situation. This put a smile on my face today.

The #Coronavirus chronicles, part 7: Creating my own college football conference #COVID19

One of my admitted addictions is my Xbox 360 and EA Sports NCAA Football 2013. With all of us shut in during the COVID-19 crisis, I’ve had a lot more time on my hands lately, and I’ve been playing football on the Xbox a lot more than I care to admit.

One of the things that NCAA Football 13 allows me to do is align my own conferences. So I decided to have some fun with it.

With conference realignment, we have teams that, geographically, don’t make much sense. West Virginia in the Big Twelve (a conference whose easternmost school was once Missouri)? Seriously? Also, college sports conferences often have their own identity relative to their geography. With no Eastern conference, that identity no longer exists.

When I was a student at Syracuse, there was no eastern football conference (at that time, the Big East was basketball-only). Instead, there were a bunch of eastern independent football programs under the umbrella of the ECAC (not an organized conference) that pretty much played each other every year, so for all intents and purposes, they informally made up their own conference, even though there wasn’t one at the time.

The late Joe Paterno once said that we need to have an all-sport Eastern conference (this was before Penn State joined the Big Ten). I’ve often thought, if we had an Eastern conference, this is how it might have looked. Well, since NCAA Football 13 allows me to align my own conferences, I could make that happen. I decided, why not!

NCAA Football 13 represents the 2012 season, which is the last season of the Big East conference and the year before Syracuse and Pittsburgh joined the ACC. It means that, in this gameplay universe, there would always be a Big East conference, and the American conference doesn’t exist. Additionally, the four-team FBS championship hadn’t yet been implemented, so I’m stuck with the BCS (boo!). It is what it is.

So in setting up my all-Eastern dream superconference, I decided to kick out any non-traditional Eastern football teams (so long, USF) and bring back the old, traditional Eastern independents (hello, Boston College, Penn State, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, and West Virginia), as well as pilfering other traditional conference teams and independents (looking at you, Maryland and Notre Dame — in this fantasy world, Maryland leaves the ACC, where they were at the time; in 2012, they hadn’t yet joined the Big Ten — and Notre Dame relinquishes its independence. Hey, before you Golden Domers yell at me, this is my setup, and I can do what I want!). I also kept other Big East teams that weren’t “traditional” — Cincinnati, UConn, and Louisville.

Of course, since I took teams from other conferences, I moved some teams around in order to balance them out. It’s interesting how your own fantasy conference realignment affects the other conferences as well! So, among other things, UCF and USF became ACC schools, Missouri went to the Big Ten, and Texas A&M went back to the Big Twelve. (I might have made some other moves as well, but I don’t remember what they were off the top of my head.)

Including twelve teams allowed me to split my conference into two divisions, along with an end-of-season championship game, so I created Eastern and Western divisions. When all was said and done, my new Big East conference looked like this.

Big East (Eastern Division)

  • Boston College
  • Cincinnati
  • UConn
  • Maryland
  • Rutgers
  • Temple

Big East (Western Division)

  • Louisville
  • Notre Dame
  • Penn State
  • Pittsburgh
  • Syracuse
  • West Virginia

(Note: yes, I know Cincinnati is further west than West Virginia. I wanted to keep as many of the traditional Eastern powers together as much as possible. Hey, my scenario, my rules!)

When all was said and done, here’s what my new “Eastern Football Superconference” looked like!

I also set up cross-division rivals, similar to what the ACC currently has — Syracuse (Atlantic Division) plays Pittsburgh (Coastal Division) every year, and so on. So in this setup, Notre Dame plays Boston College every year and Louisville plays Cincinnati. (I don’t remember what other pairings I had; I think I paired Penn State with Maryland, Pitt with Temple, West Virginia with Rutgers, and Syracuse with UConn.)

(Speaking of which, EA Sports keeps insisting that SU vs. UConn is a major rivalry. As far as I know, that rivalry only existed in basketball, and it wasn’t all that heated, like SU vs. Georgetown. Personally, I have nothing against UConn, except when we play them!)

I set up a championship game played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. I actually wanted to set it up at Met Life Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, but unfortunately, NCAA Sports 13 doesn’t offer that as an option, so I tried to pick the most centrally located stadium in a big metro area (so Penn State was out) that was offered by the game.

(Okay, maybe Pittsburgh is more centrally located. The game does allow me to change it at the end of each season. We’ll see.)

It makes for an interesting setup. I keep the geography of the former Eastern independents, and it has its own Eastern identity. If I could imagine what a geographically-sensible college football realignment might have turned out, this is how it might be organized. Oh, what might have been.

By the way, I just finished playing a season in which I took my 14-0 Syracuse team to the national championship.

Hey, I can dream, can’t I?

The sports venues that I’ve visited

I enjoy attending sporting events. My previous post got me thinking about the sports venues that I’ve visited, and I thought it’d be fun to compile that list!

A few caveats: I only list venues (along with their home teams and/or events) in which I’ve actually seen a game. For example, I’ve set foot in Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, but I didn’t actually see a game there, so it’s not on my list.

I don’t list opposing teams. I’ve been to so many events that I don’t remember them all. Also, for “home” arenas in which I’ve seen large numbers of games, they’d be too many to list, anyway.

I also denote any arenas that are homes to “my teams.” While I live two hours away from Syracuse, I still consider the Carrier Dome as my “home” arena. Geographically, Siena and UAlbany are only minutes away from me, and I do root for the home team in those arenas, but they’re not necessarily “my” teams or home arenas.

I only consider organized professional (major or minor league) and NCAA (any division) teams or events. Organized non-professional or collegiate events (e.g. Little League World Series, Olympic games, etc.) count too, although I’ve never been to one. The pickup game of touch football in the public park doesn’t count.

These are listed in no particular order, although I try to list my “home” arenas, places I’ve visited more often, and places geographically close to me first.

I mark arenas that either no longer exist or are no longer used for that sport with an asterisk (*).

All games are regular season games, unless denoted.

I have never been to an NBA, NHL, or major soccer game, which is why you don’t see them listed.

So without further ado, here’s that list.

Arenas I’ve visited

Baseball

  • Yankee Stadium (new), Bronx, NY — NY Yankees (home arena), ALDS
  • Yankee Stadium* (old), Bronx, NY — NY Yankees (home arena)
  • Joseph Bruno Stadium, Troy, NY — Tri-City ValleyCats (home arena)
  • Heritage Park*, Colonie, NY — Albany-Colonie Yankees (home arena), Albany-Colonie Diamond Dogs, NCAA Div-III tournament regional
  • Robison Field, Troy, NY — RPI Engineers (home arena)
  • Fenway Park, Boston, MA — Boston Red Sox
  • Shea Stadium*, Queens, NY — NY Mets
  • Citi Field, Queens, NY — NY Mets
  • Kingdome*, Seattle, WA — Seattle Mariners
  • Safeco Field (now T-Mobile Park), Seattle WA — Seattle Mariners
  • Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD — Baltimore Orioles, All-Star Game
  • SkyDome (now Rogers Centre), Toronto, ON — Toronto Blue Jays
  • MacArthur Stadium*, Syracuse, NY — Syracuse Chiefs
  • Alliance Bank Stadium (now NBT Stadium), Syracuse, NY — Syracuse Chiefs
  • Olympic Stadium*, Montreal, PQ — Montreal Expos
  • Veterans Stadium*, Philadelphia, PA — Philadelphia Phillies
  • Tiger Stadium*, Detroit, MI — Detroit Tigers
  • Coors Field, Denver, CO — Colorado Rockies
  • Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL — Tampa Bay Rays
  • Damaschke Field*, Oneonta, NY — Oneonta Yankees
  • East Field*, Glens Falls, NY — Glens Falls Redbirds, Adirondack Lumberjacks
  • Stade Canac, Quebec City, PQ — Quebec Capitales
  • Dwyer Stadium, Batavia, NY — Batavia Trojans
  • Silver Stadium*, Rochester, NY — Rochester Red Wings

Places where I’ve never seen a game, but are on my wish list: Wrigley Field, Chicago; Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles; Oracle Park, San Francisco; Kaufmann Stadium, Kansas City; Petco Park, San Diego; Nationals Field, Washington DC; PNC Park, Pittsburgh; any Nippon Professional League game in Japan

College football

  • Carrier Dome, Syracuse, NY — Syracuse Orange (home arena)
  • ECAV Stadium, Troy, NY — RPI Engineers (home arena)
  • ’86 Field*, Troy, NY — RPI Engineers (home arena)
  • Bob Ford Field, Albany, NY — UAlbany Great Danes
  • Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA — Boston College Eagles
  • Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD — Navy Midshipmen
  • Michie Stadium, West Point, NY — Army Black Knights
  • Veterans Stadium*, Philadelphia, PA — Temple Owls
  • Yale Bowl, New Haven, CT — Yale Bulldogs
  • Met Life Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ — Syracuse Orange
  • Giants Stadium*, East Rutherford, NJ — Syracuse Orange
  • Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH — Ohio State Buckeyes
  • Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, LA — Sugar Bowl
  • Pontiac Silverdome*, Pontiac, MI — Cherry Bowl
  • Tampa Stadium*, Tampa, FL — Hall of Fame (now Outback) Bowl
  • Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, AZ — Fiesta Bowl
  • Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY — Pinstripe Bowl
  • Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL — Camping World Bowl
  • Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (now TIAA Field), Jacksonville, FL — Gator Bowl
  • Fenway Park, Boston, MA — Fenway Gridiron Classic

Places where I’ve never seen a game, but are on my wish list: Harvard Stadium, Harvard; Memorial Stadium, Clemson; Beaver Stadium, Penn State; Rose Bowl, UCLA; Michigan Stadium, Michigan; Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame

College basketball

  • Carrier Dome, Syracuse, NY — Syracuse Orange (home arena), NCAA tournament
  • Manley Field House*, Syracuse, NY — Syracuse Orange (women — home arena)
  • RPI Armory*, Troy, NY — RPI Engineers (home arena)
  • Times-Union Center, Albany, NY — Siena Saints, MAAC tournament
  • Alumni Recreation Center*, Loudonville, NY — Siena Saints
  • SEFCU Arena, Albany, NY — UAlbany Great Danes, America East tournament
  • Pittsburgh Civic Arena*, Pittsburgh, PA — Pitt Panthers
  • Lundholm Gymnasium, Durham, NH — UNH Wildcats
  • Case Gym, Boston, MA — Boston University Terriers
  • Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome*, Minneapolis, MN — NCAA tournament
  • Reunion Arena*, Dallas, TX — NCAA tournament
  • Madison Square Garden, New York, NY — St. John’s Red Storm, Big East Tournament, NIT Preseason Tournament
  • Barclays Arena, Brooklyn, NY — preseason tournament

Places where I’ve never seen a game, but are on my wish list: The Palestra, Penn; Allen Field House, Kansas; Pauley Pavilion, UCLA; Cameron Indoor Stadium, Duke

RPI has a new arena: ECAV (East Campus Athletic Village) Arena. I have yet to see a game there.

College hockey

  • Houston Field House, Troy, NY — RPI Engineers (home arena)
  • Messa Rink, Schenectady, NY — Union Dutchmen
  • Times-Union Center, Albany, NY — Mayor’s Cup/Capital Skate Classic, NCAA tournament
  • Glens Falls Civic Center*, Glens Falls, NY — Mayor’s Cup/Capital Skate Classic
  • Lynah Rink, Ithaca, NY — Cornell Big Red
  • Starr Rink, Hamilton, NY — Colgate Raiders
  • Tate Rink, West Point, NY — Army Black Knights
  • Bright Hockey Center, Cambridge, MA — Harvard Crimson
  • Yale Ice Arena, New Haven, CT — Yale Bulldogs
  • Thompson Arena, Hanover, NH — Dartmouth Big Green
  • Olympic Ice Arena, Lake Placid, NY — ECAC tournament
  • Walter Brown Arena*, Boston, MA — Boston University Terriers
  • Cumberland County Civic Center (now Cross Insurance Arena), Portland, ME — Maine Black Bears
  • Hartford Civic Center (now XL Center), Hartford, CT — I don’t remember the event, but it was four teams: RPI, Maine, Colgate, and I don’t remember who the fourth team was.
  • Madison Square Garden, New York, NY — Rivalry On Ice (Yale vs. Harvard)

Places where I’ve never seen a game, but are on my wish list: Alfond Arena, Maine; Hobey Baker Rink, Princeton; Matthews Arena, Northeastern

AHL Hockey

  • Times-Union Center*, Albany, NY — Albany River Rats, Albany Devils

NFL Football

  • Giants Stadium*, East Rutherford, NJ — NY Giants (home arena)
  • Rich Stadium (now New Era Field), Orchard Park, NY — Buffalo Bills
  • Sullivan Stadium*, Foxborough, MA — New England Patriots
  • Veterans Stadium*, Philadelphia, PA — Philadelphia Eagles

Although I’ve been to Met Life Stadium, it was for a Syracuse game. I have yet to see the Giants there.

CFL Football

  • Landsdowne Stadium*, Ottawa, ON — Ottawa Roughriders

Arena Football

  • Times-Union Center*, Albany, NY — Albany Firebirds


Wow, I’ve attended a lot of sporting events!

Anyway, this was a fun exercise, and a neat list to put together. I’m hoping to add to it!

A few words can make a difference

A couple of weeks ago, the Rensselaer Polytechnic (the RPI student newspaper) published a couple of op-eds in regard to the situation at RPI.  (My friend, Greg Moore, wrote a piece a while back related to this issue.)  In response to the op-eds, I decided to respond with my own letter to the editor.

This morning, a friend posted to my Facebook that my letter, to my surprise, was garnering some attention.  I won’t say that it’s gone viral, but apparently, it’s caught a number of eyes.

I should note that my donations haven’t been much.  I was only a graduate student at Rensselaer, not an undergrad, so the social impact on my life wasn’t quite the same, and other financial obligations have kept me from donating more of my money.  That said, I’ve donated in other ways; I’ve been a hockey season ticket holder for many years (going back to my days as a student), I’ve attended various events (sports, cultural, etc.) on campus, and I’ve donated some of my time to the Institute.

Although my donations have been relatively meager, more importantly, I wanted to spread the word that I was no longer supporting RPI, and exactly why I was discontinuing my support.  How much I was contributing isn’t the issue; the issue is that I am stopping contributing.  For the first time in years, I have no intention of setting foot in the Field House for a hockey game during a season.  I wanted to make clear exactly why.  A large number of alumni have announced that they were withholding donations.  I wanted to add to that chorus.  It wasn’t so much how much I was donating; rather, I wanted to add my voice, and hopefully encourage other students and alumni to take action against an administration that I deem to be oppressive.

One of RPI’s marketing catchphrases is, “why not change the world?”  It looks like I’m doing exactly that with my letter.  Don’t underestimate the power of words.  Indeed, with just a few words, you can change the world.

The mystique of March Madness


(Photo source: sports.cbslocal.com)

It’s March, which means college sports junkies are in nirvana.  As I write this article, the first of the First Four games of the NCAA tournament are on the TV in front of me.

For the benefit of those of you who either live under a rock, know nothing about sports, or refer to all things sports generically as “sportsball,” a brief primer: “March Madness” (a.k.a. “the big dance”) is a reference to the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, where 68 schools compete for the national championship in a single-elimination tournament format.  It generates a great deal of excitement for students, alumni, and sports fans.  It creates a conversation topic as millions of people fill out tournament brackets, trying to predict (mostly, in vain) the outcome of all tournament matchups.  To put it mildly, March Madness is a huge deal.

I played in a pep band for a power conference NCAA Division 1 school, so my sports loyalty and school spirit are, to put it mildly, very strong.  (Side note: GO ORANGE!!!)  Those of you who know people associated with college pep bands realize that our school spirit tends to run deep (this might be another article for another time).  I’ve had friends and colleagues comment that they almost never see me without wearing an article of Syracuse gear.

However, I was spoiled at Syracuse.  We are a major conference school.  When I was a student at SU, we expected to make the NCAA tournament every year.  Anything less than a tournament bid was a disappointment; for us, NIT stood for “Not In the Tournament.”  Our ultimate goal was, and still is, to win the tournament, finally reaching the NCAA basketball summit in 2003.

There are 351 schools (as of this article) that play NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball.  68 of them make the NCAA tournament.  That’s 19% of NCAA membership.  Of those 351 schools, there are 42 schools that have never played in the NCAA tournament.  (That number had dropped by one from 43, after Lipscomb won their conference tournament this year to make it for the first time.)

I currently live in a metropolitan area that hosts two Division 1 basketball schools (Siena and UAlbany), both mid-major conference schools.  Unlike the power conferences, the mid-majors usually don’t harbor realistic expectations of winning the national championship.  For them, just making the tournament is a big deal, never mind actually winning it all.

This is a frequent conversation topic with my friend, Jim, who is an alumnus of the University of Maine (and one of the 42 schools that, as of 2018, has never made the tournament).  He has told me that he dreams of watching the selection show and seeing Maine appear in the bracket.  I understand his sentiment; for him, it is a source of school spirit and regional pride.  Seeing your school’s name come up for a major sporting event in front of a national audience is a source of pride and excitement.

Only one school will win the national championship; the other 350 will be left saying “wait ’til next year.”  For the vast majority of those schools, the possibility of winning the championship is far-fetched.  But for the 68 schools that make the tournament, it’s the idea that you have the opportunity to play for a championship, regardless of your team’s odds of winning it.  It’s like playing the lottery; as long as you get a ticket, there’s a possibility, no matter how small, that you could win it.  This is the mystique of March Madness; the majority of schools in the tournament likely will not win it, but they at least have the opportunity to compete for the big prize.